ELT UK 82% decline in student weeks
A recent survey of English UK members to measure the impact of Covid -19 on ELT business in the UK finds that, on average, centres reported an 82% decline in student weeks booked for the first three quarters of 2020 as compared to the same time in 2019.
The survey highlights the severe impact that the pandemic has had on the country’s ELT sector this year. Industry research specialist BONARD prepared the short study. It relied on responses from 145 reporting centres (representing 43% of all ELT enrolments in the UK) which were then extrapolated to the entire English UK membership.
The Q3 indicators are the most significant, not only in the decline of the number of student weeks but also because that period corresponds to the peak summer season. Compared with the 301,631 weeks delivered in Q3 2019, responding member centres anticipated providing a total of just over 53,000 student weeks in 2020 (an overall decline of roughly 250,000 student weeks).
“The impact of COVID-19 on the UK ELT industry has been unprecedented,” notes the study, “and the findings of this survey show a dramatic fall in business.
Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the industry was relatively well positioned for further growth as some statistics reports showed.
The decline in student numbers estimates to a direct revenue loss of more than £510 million for the country’s ELT sector.
Most survey participants expect a little recovery over the remaining months of this year. The outlook for 2021 is more optimistic with most respondents (43%) anticipating the market to regain up to 60% of its pre-pandemic volume during 2021. While 31% respondents expect recovery up to 40% of pre-COVID enrolments.
The outlook is stronger into 2022 with nearly half (47%) participants hoping for an 80% recovery, and another 31% a full recovery (to pre-COVID levels) by that point.
The conclusion of the study suggests that it might take years for the sector to fully recover depending on the COVID-19 metrics in the UK and source countries, the possibilities of travel and the confidence of parents and students in the measures taken by the sector to keep them safe. The junior under-18 part of the industry, which comprises 54% of all international English language learners in the UK, is more prone to these external factors and thus expected to recover later than the part of the industry covering courses for adults.
Additionally, the study highlights that government support will be critical to the sector’s recovery as well as will be the close coordination and information sharing among all schools, providers, agents involved within the industry.
